Are Real Estate Prices Really Rising Again?
In NYC They Are!!!

       The attached chart shows supply and demand for the Upper East Side of NYC (The chart for the entire city looks very similar). The red line is pending sales (contracts signed), or demand. And the blue line active listings (supply). The trend over the last few months is important but perhaps even more important are the levels that the numbers show. To compare apples to apples we must look at the levels now verses one and two years ago so that seasonal differences don’t affect the analysis. (Thanks go to Noah Rosenblatt of UrbanDigs.com for the data and chart)

 Let’s look at supply first. Two years ago there were 494 available condos on the UES, last Feb 12 there were 413 available and today there are 306 available. In short supply has shrunk 38% from Feb 2011 and 26% from Feb 2012. That implies higher prices to come.

On the demand side of the picture, this week in Feb 2011 condos entering contract numbered 90, in 2012, 84, a slight reduction, but take a look at the most recent #’s for 2013, 171 contracts signed. That is a huge jump of 204% from last year. Huge!

The combination of supply being extremely tight and demand soaking up the available active listings like an a Bounty paper towel imply that prices are very likely about to rise…… not next year, not next summer….NOW. This “perfect storm of rising demand and shrinking supply  is the reason you are hearing & reading of crowds at open houses and bidding wars… They are happening again, and there are more coming If you are in the market to buy a property on the Upper East Side or anywhere in Manhattan or the areas of Brooklyn & Queens near Manhattan, my advice is to move quickly. Have your pre-approval letter ready as time may be of the essence if there is a competing offer. I believe if you don’t act quickly you will either pay higher prices in the spring and summer or be priced out of the market.

 Think about what would happen if OPEC cut off oil supplies the week before the 4^th of July Holiday. Supply down big just as demand appears for the biggest driving weekend of the year. Where do you think gasoline prices would go? How fast would they get there? Would you want to be on the front of the line filling up or at the back hoping to be able to buy before the supply runs out and prices get raised again tomorrow?

If this type of analysis interest you and you would like to see more, whether on a macro city wide basis or micro, sometimes even inside a building basis, contact me at any time at

Randy Reis

347.878.KWNY(5969)

rreis@kwnyc.com